The eighth wonder of the world

November 23, 2024 Insight from Eric Van Enk, Wealth Advisor & Associate Portfolio Manager

Albert Einstein famously referred to compound interest as the ‘eighth wonder of the world’. What did one of the greatest minds of the 20th century mean by this statement? From a mathematical perspective, compound interest represents the ‘eighth wonder of the world’ because it generates exponential vs. linear returns. Basically, returns are amplified over the long term by receiving returns on returns (interest on interest). This same concept can be applied to investing in general (real estate, stocks, etc.). Although investing in stocks doesn’t technically represent compound interest, investors maintain the ability to earn compound returns by reinvesting returns from dividends and staying invested over the long term.

Source: National Bank Financial

This week’s chart is a fantastic depiction of the power of staying invested over the long term. It shows the return of investing $1 in the S&P 500 in January 1901 ($1 invested in 1901 would be worth $100,000 today). I also thought it was a timely reminder given the recent victory of Donald Trump and the Republican sweep of the House and the Senate in the U.S. The chart goes all the way back to the presidential term of the first Roosevelt (Theodore or Teddy) and shows Democratic presidents in blue while Republican presidential terms are represented in red. Some readers may find it interesting that the stock market (S&P 500) has performed better, on average, during Democratic presidential terms rather than Republican – the average annual return during Democrat presidential terms has been 12.3% vs. 7.8% for Republican presidential terms. Keen observers will notice two periods of significant market underperformance being the 1929 crash and the 2008 global financial crisis which both occurred during Republican presidencies. If we excluded those two periods (correlation doesn’t necessary imply causation), the returns between Democratic and Republican presidents would likely be much closer.

The overarching message from the chart is investors should maintain focus on staying invested for the long term and benefitting from compound returns rather than attempting to ‘time’ their investments based on who is occupying the White House. This doesn’t mean there aren’t different strategies or sectors to consider based on who controls the political landscape, it just means that investors with a longer-term perspective are more likely to benefit from the ‘eighth wonder of the world’.

Eric Van Enk, Wealth Advisor & Associate Portfolio Manager

National Bank Financial – Wealth Management

Medicine Hat, AB

National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). The information contained herein has been prepared by Eric Van Enk, Associate Portfolio Manager and Wealth Advisor at NBF.  I have prepared this article to the best of my judgment and professional experience to give you my thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed represent solely my informed opinions and may not reflect the views of NBF. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF.

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