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The Good, The Bad, The Ugly Newsletter

Hey Cam, our first video together, what do you think?

It's going to be fun.

Yeah. 2024 was a wonderful year.

On a personal note, I was lucky enough to trick my best friend in to marry me before she got her

cataract surgery done and I look forward to you all meeting her.

Secondly, the families we care for just had a real good year.

We ran with four models.

The rates of return this year ran from 9% if you only had 35% in the stock market up to our most

aggressive model, which is 90% in the stock market and it achieved 17% return.

I couldn't be happier when our clients are doing great, I'm having a really good day.

It you know, This is why we do it at this stage of our life is for all of you folks and I'm so happy to see

you all doing so well.

Many of you are in our balance model could because you're retired and it's only 60% in the stock

market and even it had achieved 12% return this year.

Now your returns might vary slightly, you know, depending on if you did a bunch of withdrawals and

deposits throughout the year.

Now the stock market has been great for a couple of years, so it's tempting for investors and advisors

to get too euphoric and follow the herd and go all in and let's just buy tech stock or we'll go out and

buy one of the 20,000 types of cryptocurrencies.

You know, I was reading some great headlines the other day around that regarding the euphoria of, of

having a new president and how bullish the world is that we have a new president in case except, of

course, the people that really don't like Mr. Trump, they're not too bullish.

But yeah, most of the world is though, they know he's pretty business friendly.

So here, here's some headlines that that I was reading.

The president will lower tax and be business friendly and was elected on a platform of protectionism

and tariffs which will make the United States really strong.

Interest rates have been lower to stimulate the economy.

Reserve requirements that banks have been reduced.

So the money supply in the United States has increased by 60% to get consumers to borrow and buy

and get the economy rock and rolling margin account balances of people boring to buy.

Stocks are at record levels.

This all gives us a feeling of prosperity when it comes to the stock market.

So people have started to speculate or gamble in the investment world, real estate is also doing really

well as FOMO or the fear of missing out.

The president has also announced deportation of a million or more illegal immigrants back to Mexico.

That makes Americans believe that they're going to have more jobs, less than unemployment.

Everything like that. It sounds pretty good eh, Cam?

The math is starting to match the Cinderella economy.

U.S. economic headlines are indeed positive under the Trump presidency, at least in my world.

So the attitude of advisors in my world is let's rock'n'roll.

However, I tricked you again here.

These, these headlines, I listed above, even though they sound exactly like today, they're not from

today.

They're actually from the 1920s when Herbert Hoover was president in the roaring 20s.

And those indeed were all the things that he did.

President Hoover placed tariffs and deported 1.8 million people Back to Mexico.

At that time he called it the Great Repatriation.

Hoover's bull market was followed as you know-the Roaring 20s was incredible bull market where the

stock market quadrupled.

Unfortunately, it was followed by an 89% market crash.

The stock market stayed down for 20 years and created the Great Depression.

7000 U.S. banks failed and unemployment hit 25%.

That's quite a bit more than the three to 6% unemployment we have today.

Yeah, that's a pretty dooming gloom scenario.

Yeah, I guess you're taking the bad side of the good, bad and ugly.

I've taken the old guy-bad side.

I have to be optimistic. I'm just a little bit younger than you are.

Yeah, I've got no choice.

Well, Mr. Trump and all the investment advisors, I think, Cam, need to read their history books before

going all in, because President Trump, if he fulfills all his provinces, he's about to do exactly what

President Hoover did.

But am I predicting a stock market crash?

No, no, I'm not, because no one knows if the market's going to crash.

You can't get run over by a train you can see coming.

So no one knows what's going to happen under the Trump presidency.

It may be the best stock market in the world.

It might have a crash. You know.

What are your thoughts?

You know what, with all those stars aligning like President Hoover's, it's really hard to say.

The history does rhyme.

It doesn't always mirror itself.

But there's a lot of differences between now and 1929, obviously.

Got to look at the other side of the coin.

I'll take the good half of the good and bad ugly today.

You know, back in 1929, there was no Federal Reserve or Bank of Canada.

There's no social safety Nets like EI.

There was no old age security or Canada Pension Plan.

There certainly wasn't a Canadian Deposit Insurance Corp or the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

So there's all those backstops that are in place nowadays.

If there was a Fed Reserve back in 29, I have a hard time feeling that, that Great Depression actually

would have happened.

Yeah, that's true, right.

So, but stock markets do predict the future.

They're always leading indicators on the economy.

And AI is going to be increasing productivity, similar to the 1990s tech boom.

So there is a lot of optimism going there.

If President Trump does fall through those promises like lowering interest rates, cutting taxes,

increasing oil supply, deregulating the business world, then all of that is all catalysts for increased

corporate profits and with that, increased stock prices.

You know, I think I think he'll do that.

I really do.

Because you know what, he likes to make money.

So that's why I think he will do a lot of that stuff.

Yeah.

What did he say last time he made a civilian office?

“How's your 401ks doing?”

Yeah, Yeah.

And you can bet he's shorting and longing some investments on his own.

But anyways, you didn't hear it here.

I don't have a clue what Donald Trump's doing. So.

But no, Cam's right.

Technology is a huge inflection point.

I lived through it in the 90s and saw a crash in 2000, obviously.

But it's even more staggering this time than it was in the 90s.

I think in 1900, for example, it took 150 years to double all human knowledge on the planet.

1945 it took 25 years.

In 2020, we were excited because it was taking two days only to double all human knowledge on the

planet.

Guess what it is today, 12 hours.

Every 12 hours all human knowledge on the planet is doubling.

If that's not going to have an effect over, a positive effect over corporations and corporate profit, I

don't really know what will.

The markets might be a little overheated.

We're starting to see some crazy crap recently.

For example, it's Sotheby’s’ auction the other day, on November 8th, a crypto investor, Justin Son,

paid the Italian artist Mauricio Cartland $6.2 million for a beautiful piece of art entitled The Comedian.

Now, you know, you might be going taken for a ride of your piece of art.

It's called The Comedian.

Yeah, no doubt.

And yes, it is a banana. Duct tape to a wall.

It's a $6.2 million banana.

It was reported that after he bought it, he tore it off the wall and ate it.

Did you bring your lunch?

Got a banana in there?

No Riley eats all the bananas.

I'll bring the duct tape.

So as always, we're going to have to participate the best in your plan, but prepare for the worst when

we see crap like this going on.

As always, we remain cautious so we don't damage your family or send you back to work.

If you are retired, we will not mark a time around this kind of background noise as the Federal Reserve

may continue with the soft landing.

And you would miss wonderful years.

You really would.

So we're not going to get cute and go to the sidelines, but we're prepared.

The stock market has dropped roughly every five years for 100 years, and they'll do so.

They'll continue to do so long after I'm not on this planet or you're not on this planet too.

But remember the other side of the coin is when the stock market rises, it rises 80% of the time and it

only drops 20% of the time.

And remember 80% of your investment success will be termed by not getting too euphoric in the

good times like now and gamble instead of invest.

And on the other side, not capitulating and selling at the bottom when your investments are having

bad times.

The markets has corrected every five years, we know it'll come again.

So guess what we're going to do?

We're going to take advantage of opportunities when that happens.

The third piece of good news that we want to share with you today is that, as you know, we moved to

a new fantastic home, namely National Bank.

Yes, thank you, everybody.

From all of us here at the Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group, from the bottom of our hearts, Brad and I

can't thank you enough for moving with us.

When advisors move an institution, a financial institution, typically it takes about 12 to 16 months to

move all of the clients over.

And there's only about 50 to 70% of the clients will follow their advisors during those changes.

And we are so, so honored that effectively 100% more client families have come with us, except for

one that we're actually going to be meeting with this week here to have a have a sit down.

So thank you again for signing all of those documents and DocuSign and working through that

arduous process with us.

We know how much work it was to go through those mountains of paperwork because guess who

also had to sign all those forms too?

This guy right here.

So you broke a lot of records, and I'll show you this graph here.

We actually tracked our transition process.

Couple things about it.

First off, the title is Bee Gees because that's what National Bank had for a code name for our team.

They like to stick to a theme of rock bands or old bands I guess, and it seemed fitting that we were the

Bee Gees.

We care for about 150 families, including children as well.

So that leads to about 225 couples.

And here's the results.

90% of you gave us the verbal yes within that first week that you're going to work with us continually.

And all clients except for the one family that we're still up to meet with have completed paperwork

and their hard earned savings have all been moved over here by day 70.

So during this transition, there was some eyebrows even the President of National Bank Financial

Wealth Management called us and said we did not know that a move could be completed this fast.

Now we're still cleaning up a few items for some of you.

However, as a couple weeks ago, we're resuming normal operations and we started to meet with the

referrals, start to continue on our regular review cycle and continue with all of the regular financial

planning after this interruption.

So stay tuned.

Early next year, Brittlyn is going to be announcing the details of a big red carbon event for you and all

of your families to attend.

Brittlyn is currently interviewing some venues as we speak.

We're going to need a big place to house all everybody.

You know, I feel it's really weird when you're talking a long time like that because I'm sitting here

nodding that you're talking now.

You know how I feel.

Kind of reminds you when we're watching the Prime Minister or someone standing beside the

nodding.

So all kidding aside, there's quite a few reasons we moved.

Some of you asked, you know, why the heck did you guys go through this?

And you know, I'm moving at my age was the last thing I wanted to do.

There's many reasons we moved.

Number one, size and safety.

National Bank over here, managed $653 billion or way over half a trillion dollars.

Stable history equals a stable future.

The bank's 165 years old and, and the independent wealth division where we work, where we reside is

122 years old.

And no, I wasn't there when the doors came.

I promise.

The most important thing which I got in writing, you know, I'm too old to be told what to do.

So the most important thing that I wanted writing was autonomy.

So we're free.

We know for sure we are free to operate independently from the bank.

We do not have to use their investments.

We can use the 60 any of the 68,000 investments out there that we want and continue to run the

business the way we want to and the way we've always ran it in an ethical client centric man.

Well that was so, so very important.

We know without all of you that we don't have jobs.

Therefore, the ability to continue white glove services paramount.

It was paramount in our decision to move.

National Bank will be a good partner in that goal.

I did, I did quite a lengthy due diligence on that for the last several years

Now National Bank is ranked #1 every year in the JD Powers Client Service survey.

And this was very important to me.

This, this graph as well as many other things, safety.

You know, all the banks and, and financial institutions I interviewed, they all had cyber walls like any

other business.

What's unique is National Bank has also employed hackers to play defense against other hackers to

give that extra level of safety to your money.

And, and that sure made me feel really, really safe.

Yeah.

And coming over here, the entire team did follow us except for one person.

So we need to search across Canada, find somebody to fill those shoes and we're very grateful that

we've found someone with even more experience actually to run our paperwork processing and the

compliance desk.

So last month, Tracy Spence, you may see some emails coming in from her already has moved from

Toronto to take over our vacant desk here on the team.

A little bit about her.

She has 30 years’ experience in this role.

She's been a past winner of the highest performance award with one of her past employers.

She's worked at several banks and including National Bank in the past and fits in and shares with the

team the love of the clients and the higher purpose of caring for families.

Most importantly, she does laugh at Brad's dad jokes as well, too.

That's a must to try and fit in here.

Good timing.

Yeah.

So we have yet to get some new head shots done up.

So we'll be bringing Tracy in here shortly so you can get a a quick look at her and and put a face to

the name.

“Hi, I'm Tracy.

I'm very excited to meet all of you.”

But presently, the team in no particular order.

Many of you know Brittlyn already, she's our operations manager and really the circus leader.

We've got Jeremy who's our experienced plan writer with years of planning experience and he even

worked at banks before, lending experience as well too.

Augustine's our support member for anything administrative wise when it comes to your accounts and

now Tracy here as well, obviously joining in too.

So big team to be able to continue that white glove service approach.

I want to close also and back up what Cam said.

Thank you, thank you, thank you so much.

I'm personally humbled that you all followed us.

It, it's a heck of a compliment.

Thank you so, so much.

I also want to thank the team, though obviously they work side by side with Cam and I on many

weekends and well into the evening during this process till I started to lose my voice.

They made fun of me because I had a bag of throat lozenges behind my desk during the transition,

but they backed me up through all of that.

I'm also very proud of a man who's like a son to me, which is, which is Cam right here.

He stepped up and took possession of the administrative part of the practice through this move and

freed me up to work on the business, making it a Better Business instead of getting buried in the

business and the paperwork and admin minutia of the practice.

And I'd like I've, I've told some of you and I happy to announce to all of you that I've changed the

name of our business from Gustafson Associates to Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group.

I guess that stands for GLAG

I Google GLAG, there's nothing bad.

We're OK.

We're not going to get sued.

I'm glad that it doesn't mean anything shifty or anything.

I sure hope not.

I didn't think about that.

Also, our legal department is putting the finishing touches on a succession contract as we speak to

ensure if I fall ill or croak on you, that Cam will take you and your family over the finish line for the rest

of your entire life.

And that sounds like a small thing, but it gives me a giant amount of comfort.

I was in a car accident on the highway the Callaway park in 19…

Sorry, 2021. See, that's why I need a successor.

I forget what century it is, and that's probably the post-concussion.

Yeah, so.

But it was in 2021 during COVID and I'm sitting on the side of the highway in the ditch waiting for an

ambulance and thinking “what about my family? What about the clients? What about the practice?”

And it gave me a lot of comfort to know that if Cam was here and it would be all OK if anything bad

happened to me after that accident.

So it means a lot to me to have an honorable partner like Cam.

Thank you to him for your continued mentorship.

It's seven years now on the team and I, I couldn't be more grateful and happier for working with you

and everything I've learned and, and getting to know all of you as well too.

Like our clients, it's feels like one giant family and something that we love to do on a day in and day

out.

And that's the reason why we come to work every day.

So from all of us at the Gustafson-Lienau Advisory Group, we want to say thank you very much and

wish you all a wonderful holiday season.

“Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to everyone.”

National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). 

National Bank Financial Ranked #1 by J.D. Power

Economic news

Economic Impact

To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Denis Girouard take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.

Hello everyone, Welcome to Economic Impact. Today is December 10th, 2024 and as usual I am with our Chief Economist, Stefane Marion. Stefane, once again stock market is going up.

Hi, good morning, Denis. It's been a great wealth effect for most households. We know that most portfolios are composed of equities new all-time high on the MSI all country index. So, yeah, it's striking how well the stock market is doing globally.

And is it worldwide or it's only North America phenomenon?

Well, you might not suspect this thing, but if I was to tell you who's what's the best stock market perform where? Where's the country, where the stock markets performing the best so far in Q4?

I saw the slide.

Yeah. OK.

So Canada we're up almost 8% quarter to date, outperforming the rest of the world. Year to date, we have a 24% gain exceeded only by the US at 28%. I can bet you that not many people thought Canada would follow the US as well as it has in 2024.

Stefane, are we catching up in Canada versus the US because our price earning ratio are lower?

Yeah, we spoke to that a few quarters ago saying that it was abnormal to see this discount on Canada versus US on the stock market perspective. So you're absolutely right that there's a catch up phase here. Half of the gains on the S&P TSX this year were accounted by P/E expansion. Yet Denis, despite this catch up, we're still trading at historical discount to the US. So if I was to qualify the Canadian stock market right now, I would not call it overvalued. It's fairly valued, not overvalued for the US it's probably a different connotation.

OK. And now if we go back to economy, the exportation, I think we need to talk about that.

Well, people thought that stock market would be under pressure this quarter because of the potential threats of tariff coming from the US. I know the president-elect spoke to 25%. 25% would be a massive deal on Canada, Denis. Because we have $600 billion of exports going to the US, that's 20% of GDP. So I mean, you know, putting these slapping 25% tariffs on that would seriously fragilized any economy and probably the stock market.

And we can talk about crude oil because people, I don't think they know how much exportation we're doing to the State.

So the reason the market is not buying into the 25% tariff structure is because they know full well that the president-elect has promised the Americans that they would get affordable energy going forward. So if you impose a 25% tariff on Canada, which accounts for 62% of US imports of crude oil, we are now shipping 4 million barrels a day to the US right now. You would certainly ignite inflationary pressures in the US. So that's why the, you know, the components of the Canadian stock market that's performing so well in Q4, aside from the IT sector is the energy sector because the market is saying no, no, no, there's no way Washington could put 25% of tariff without fragilized its own economy.

OK, Stefane, but there's something doesn't add up here, why the Canadian dollar is so low compared to the US dollar despite that.

Well, for some people it's a conundrum because the models are broken because normally you have an historical relationship between the Canadian dollar and the price of oil. We also include, you know, interest rate spreads on that one. So what is striking this time is that the Canadian dollar is so cheap... well, you know, 1.40$ more than 1.40$ versus U.S. dollar and oil is trading at $70.00. We've never seen this combination in the past whenever the Canadian dollar traded at current levels, oil was trading at no more than $30.00. So obviously it's a revenue boon for the energy producers, but from a purchasing power it's quite frustrating. So a lot of people are saying why is the relationship broken between oil prices and the exchange rate?

OK, but how are you explaining that? Is it because of the employment?

Interest rate spread. So economic performance, the relative economic performance in Canada vs US. We're not doing very well right now. The unemployment rate at 6.8% last month versus US at 4.2%. So the markets have jumped on this and they are now saying that we can justify the divergence in monetary policy between the two countries.

OK, what's your call on the next Bank of Canada rate cut or not?

Well, the market is calling 90% odds that they'll be cutting rates 50 points. Yeah, 50 basis points. So we gotta get closer to 3% as quickly as possible. Denis, I want to bring your attention to the fact that this gap in the unemployment rate is the widest we've seen since 2001, so over 20 years. So yes, you can justify this. And so the Canadian dollar is trading on rate differential between Canada and US as opposed to oil prices.

Well, it's the end of the year and now we need to look at 2025. How does it look?

More uncertainty Denis. So uncertainty can bring positive surprises, but also can be challenging for markets or the economy. The reality, if we look at economic policy uncertainty in US right now, it has surged. The president-elect is not yet sitting in the White House and there's a whole bunch of policies that been rolled out there. We know that there might be a tariff war between China and the US, not just Canada and Mexico. So we're reinventing the global supply chain. It's uncertain what it means to inflation and expectations down the road. The president wants to avoid inflation expectations to rise. But this is pretty acute in terms of policy uncertainty right now. And this is a fairly high level, even if you compare to 2016 when he was first elected.

Well, we've never seen. Outside COVID, you have to go back to 2012 where it was the debt crisis in Eurozone, US was downgraded back then also, don't forget that... And there was also the beginning of a war in Syria, which is reigniting again. So we'll see what happened.

Syria is back again.

Yeah. So that can bring more challenges for markets. So again, this is not everything is so calm looking into 2025.

And we had two really spectacular year in terms of performance.

Yeah. So the message is don't be greedy when we've had two exceptional years of market returns, doesn't matter which asset classes, 2024 is just as good as 2023. It's exceptional to see back-to-back years like that. So again, looking into 2025, there are still uncertainties. So just be comfortable with your current asset mix and whether it respects your investment horizon. If not, then just give you know the calls that need to be made. But again, I can't promise you a third year of exceptional returns given the uncertainty that we see out there.

Well, on that, Stefane, thank you very much. Thank you for all of you to participate and to listen to our monthly Economic Impact. On behalf of the technical team of Economic Impact, on behalf of Stefane and myself, we wish you a happy holidays and hopefully we'll see you back in 2025.

Property Perspective

Our National Bank specialists decode the latest trends in the real estate market, including interest rates, the resale market and forecasts for the coming months.

Hello everyone and welcome to this November 28th edition of Property Perspective. Today I have the pleasure to be with Matthieu Arseneau, hello Matthieu. 

Hi Simon. 

And with Andrée Desrosiers. 

Hello Simon. 

Hello Andrée. Our topic of the day, what's best for my mortgage, a fixed or a variable rate. But before we enter that interesting discussion with Andrée, let's talk with Matthieu about recent economic news that influence the real estate market. So Matthieu, a number of events have occurred since we last spoke, all of which have an impact on the economic outlook, obviously. First, what are the implication of the Republican sweep in the US presidential election for economic growth and interest rates? 

Yes, this was a big event and there will be application for that for Canada over the next four years. Higher uncertainty, we saw that with the announcement of potential tariff on Canada. We'll see. But clearly, in my mind, the big event and this has implication for the housing market in Canada, particularly for interest rates. It's the fact that there could be much more fiscal stimulus South of the border given the promises of Trump during the campaign. As you can see on that chart, while the Congressional Budget Office was expecting roughly 6% of GDP deficit, which is already very high, it could be as high as 8% if all those promises are realized by Mr. Trump. So at the moment the Federal Reserve is trying to calm inflation in the US, calm the economy. There's government that could support growth over the next few years. So before the election, the Federal Reserve started to decline rates. They did already 75 basis points. But you can see that at the same time it didn't mean that longer term rates decline. In fact, it increased because of risk of tariffs and its implication for inflation because of stronger growth, though that's something we have to keep in mind. And the problem with that increase is given a global correlation in interest rates, when you have the largest economy in the world supporting the economy and having those rates it has an impact on rates in countries with economies not as strong as the US and has to cope with those increases. And that could be difficult for a couple of other economies in the world given the increase of those of those rates. So big implication and that has implications for Canada as well. 

Very interesting Matthieu, so the ability to lower the prime rate in the US now looks more limited. What about Canada?

In Canada, so we saw that in fact for investors expectation for the policy rate in the US, it was expected at 3%. Now it's much more closer to 4% by the end of next year. So clearly investors revised their optimism for rate cuts in the US. In Canada, the situation is clearly different in our view when you look at the labour market here, I'm showing the jobless wait for the prime age workers, the 25-54, it has continued to increase over the past few months. And that's diverging with the US and it's now its highest since 2017. And we don't see stabilization over the next few months given the hiring intention of corporations. So for us that's a sign that the economy has cooled significantly and this is reflected in inflation. When you look at services, core services excluding shelter in the US, it's running at 4.4% because they didn't have that weakness that we got in Canada, it's so it's running at 1.3%. So clearly inflation is under control here. So yes, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue to decline rates. Prior to recent announcements, we were expecting policy rate as low as 2% by the end of next year. But given the transfer that was also announced by the federal government, it could lead to upwardly revise a bit. We'll see if it will be implemented. But clearly as you can see on that chart, while Bank of Canada is declining rates, 10 year rate is increasing and is essentially in its last two years average at this point. So not that much relief for long term rates. So that's something to keep in mind. But for that reason, perhaps it's another reason for the Canada to try to push down those rates by having short term rates very low. So that's our expectation at this time, OK.

Matthieu, the government has announced recently an additional break on population growth for the next three years. What are the implications of this new announcement on the real estate market?

We talked about it very often over the past few months. Housing shortage is still very acute in Canada. We see that in the rental market with rent still increasing at a tepid pace. Same thing for first time home buyers. It's where affordability is still a problem. So I think it's the good decision to calm down population growth. In fact, with the recent announcement about the declining non permanent resident to 5% of population over a 2 year. Reducing permanent resident temporarily, that will lead for— when you look at the five year period, when we look in 2028, the pace for the next 5 years will be similar to what we had prior to the pandemic level, much more sustainable and much more in line with our capacity to welcome. So, I think it's a good decision at this point given housing shortage. And we have to keep in mind newcomers have problems to integrate the labour market in the current context. So let's fix that situation and get back to normal after this three-year period of slow growth and we will be able to get back to the model we had that was benefiting the Canadian economy prior to the pandemic. 

So finally good news. Thank you, Matthieu for your very interesting comments. Let's now discuss with Andrée, hello Andrée. In the context of the anticipated drop of the interest rate by the end of this year and obviously in 2025, should we go with a fixed rate or variable rate for our mortgage?

Very good questions Simon and indeed very relevant. The choice between a fixed rate and a variable rate for a mortgage depends on several factors, especially in the context of falling rates. Our risk tolerance, financial situation and short and mid economic outlook are key, you know, considerations to look at. We must first understand the bearish rate context, however, When the Bank of Canada lowers its prime rate, financial institutions typically adjust, you know, their mortgage rates in response to that downsize. Variable rates will generally follow primary fluctuations and become particularly advantageous in the short term. Fixed rates, although often higher than variable rates at the time of subscription, offer protection against potential future increases. We must however remember that they usually follow the interest rate on long term bonds and not the Bank of Canada prime rate. Therefore, a quarter point drop in the prime rate does not mean that fixed rate will fall by the same amount. 

OK. We must therefore understand this context carefully before making our decision. You're right, Andrée. Many people assume that when there's a drop in the prime rate, all rates fluctuate in the same way. However, as we have just seen, that isn't the case since different rates are influenced by different factors. With that in mind, Andrée, what are the advantages of one or the other? 

Yeah. If we look first, you know, at the variable rate, you should consider that rate if you believe that interest rates will continue to decline or stay low for an extended period of time. You can also choose the variable rate if you're comfortable with some level of risk and can handle or afford, you know, potential payment increases if rates rise. Also if you want to benefit from lower penalties, if you decide to pay off your mortgage early or switch lenders. Also, some variable rates loans offer the option to switch to a fixed rate if rates increase. On the other hand, you should consider, you know, a fixed rate if you prefer stability and want to avoid uncertainty, if you think rates might rise in the midterm and again, if your budget cannot accommodate sudden increases in monthly payments.

So once again, Andrée, the choice does not automatically go towards one or the other. Even if we are in the context of falling rates. As you mentioned, we must make sure to take other elements into account in our decision. You are very right Simon. And we must also not forget that some lenders offer mixed rate mortgages, you know, part fixed, part variables. So this approach allows you to balance the advantages of both options and reducing risk while still benefiting partially from falling rates. So in summary, you know in a falling rate environment, a variable rate may seem more advantageous in the short term, but it remains a bet on future rate trends. If you're comfortable with some uncertainty, a variable rate could maximize your savings. However, if peace of mind is your priority, a fixed rate is the safer choice. It all depends like usual on your financial profile and financial goals. To help you in your choice as usual, do not hesitate to consider or consult a mortgage specialist to assess your personal situation and provide you the right advice for that choice. 

Thank you Andrée for sharing your insights. As you suggested, having a discussion with a mortgage specialist will help make the right decision. There's no point about that. So thank you all for watching and join us again very soon for our next edition of Property Perspective.

5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook

5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.

Hello everyone. Today, December 4, we're going to take 5 minutes to look back on the year that's just about the end and look forward to the year that's right around the corner.

So, if we start by looking in the rear-view mirror, as you can see, 2024 turned out to be quite a spectacular year for investors. Returns of about 30% for global equities in Canadian dollars. There were some bouts of volatility from time to time, but ultimately with inflation moving down broadly and the labour market in the U.S. remaining relatively strong, the uptrend was sustained on the equity market front. The flip side of this is that without any substantial slowdown in growth, bonds gains were much more modest, but nonetheless in line with running yields. And if you combine these two key asset classes as we often see in a balanced portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds, again, as you can see, a spectacular year for investors.

And just to put things into perspective, let's look at how that specific balanced typical portfolio has performed historically on a year-to-year basis. And there are two things, two takeaways from this chart. The first one being just how much the chances of success are skewed towards investors, in favour of investors essentially 8 years out of 10. That portfolio has been positive since the 1990s by an average of about 8%. So, the point here is that whenever we may think at any point in time, just keep in mind that these are the odds that we're facing as investors. The second point is to show how the last few years have been rather extreme in many ways, and specifically in 2022, when that inflation shock spared no asset classes virtually. But since then, we've had quite a positive comeback in 2023, but even more so this year. And the fact that we've been so much in extremes in recent years is definitely a reflection of the reality that the economic landscape has been anything but normal in recent years as we've moved away from the pandemic.

And the reality is that even in as we approach 2025, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty and even fragility in this economic backdrop, all reliant on how the U.S. labour market will evolve. And for now, what we see is that businesses are very cautious, with hiring rates well below historical averages, and consequently, workers are also very much prudent, much less willing to quit their job on their own, the quit rate is at its slowest point in essentially 8 years. But the positive thing here is that despite all of this, layoffs remain very low. And the labour market picture that you see on the screen here, that was literally the best-case scenario in the eyes of the Fed and by extension, in the eyes of the markets. And that's what we got thus far. But let's be clear, these trends, specifically these two, need to stabilize in 2025 because otherwise the logical next step would be to ultimately see that layoff rate pick up.

So, we'll have to remain cautious, but there's ground for optimism. There are some promising signs that are starting to show up on our screen. Specifically, we like to monitor manufacturing activity, which has been relatively weak over the past two years. But when you take into account a series of factors and most importantly, the fact that global central banks have been cutting rates, most of them have been cutting rates since 2024, that suggests that we may get a rebound next year. And if that happens, that would be very much welcome news for markets.

All right. So, 3 takeaways for today. As I alluded to, it's essentially the best-case scenario that came to fruition in 2024 and markets have responded accordingly. But when we look at 2025, we technically see less and fewer cyclical clouds, but we're faced with much more political fog with the arrival of U.S. administration that you know, as well as I do, is fundamentally unpredictable. And there's a lot of things that will likely happen on the fiscal policy front, the trade policy front, foreign policy front. There will definitely be surprises on these fronts next year. And as such, as investors, we must expect sustained volatility next year and ultimately, perhaps gains that are much closer to historical averages and perhaps less extreme than what we've seen in recent years.

If you'd like more details on our outlook for next year, make sure to check out a report that came out in early December. And until then, I wish you all happy holidays and we will talk again in March 2025.

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