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Hello, it is approaching 12:00 here on Thursday March 13th has not actually been that long since we did our last video for you, but I thought it was sort of timely given what has been going on out there. It's been a little bit chaotic to say the least, so we thought it was obviously worth reaching out and and updating on where we're at what we're seeing is, yeah, a lot of, a lot of volatility as predicted and I think this is sort of  consistent with the presidential  election cycle theory that we've talked about in the past where you know the the year of an election  presidential candidates are making all  kinds of promises and everything sounds  great and markets generally do well in  that environment, right. All kinds of promises are made and then the reality hits when a new politician comes in for a  four-year term they're going to make all the difficult decisions upfront so those are all going to occur in year one in this case the new US Administration got off to a real aggressive start and they've made a lot of changes in the first four months a lot of  unpopular stuff.

I want to just preface anything I say here just by reminding you that this is not a political view that is being expressed. Everything we do is through the scope of investments and that is the way we look at things. We leave our political and social agendas aside and just  come to this purely from an investment  standpoint so when I'm considering this  and we've said it before Trump is  actually probably positive net for the  investment landscape and some of the  things that we've seen so far we  actually still really like for some of  the groundwork that's being laid. Those things are again you know a reduction of the size and scope of government of course it is excellent. It just greases the wheels of business the reduction of spending and debt at the government level is certainly positive. That should be reflected well in currency markets and in treasury and bond markets and we have seen that yields on bonds are coming down. Bonds are rallying and then lastly, I guess tax cuts are certainly very positive for companies that are reporting earnings it's just more cash on their on their earnings reports which effectively inflates the price of their share price.

Again, some positive things happening there and I want to reiterate that of course all of that is being overshadowed by what we are seeing on the tariff front. We had mentioned that it was a wait and see for us and that we thought a lot of the tariffs that were being talked about as applied to Canada did not make a lot of sense. That does not seem to matter. They have come after kind of everybody in this tariff war and now you are seeing sort of reciprocal action from everybody else, so you know I think it has been very hard to kind of manage portfolios around that. The example the other day, I was at home I get up, I get on my computer, I am sort of doing my sort of morning assessment and I see the news about Ontario levying tariffs on energy exports to the US. I get in my car; I am on my way to the office, and I stop at the coffee shop. As I am getting into the coffee shop, I look, and Trump has responded with his own doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum so then I get to the office, and both have backed off and we are not going to proceed with any of that. So, it has just become this sort of ridiculous narrative, and it is paramount that we focus on what is being done and not what is being said so this is extremely challenging for most of us. Most of us are in front of the media in one form or another at all hours of the day and the Canadian media is having a field day with this. This is fanning patriotic emotions, and everybody is getting really upset about what is happening because of this perceived attack on Canada so you got to be very careful about following the Canadian media. From  our perspective what we want to focus on  is again just what's being done and we  also want to focus on the fact that we are not the market we  are not what's being reported in the  media your portfolio is completely  different from even what's happening in  the various stock markets around the  world and that's an important  takeaway. We manage three different portfolios, a conservative, a balanced, and a growth. And they are all about flat on the year so let us take that in comparison to some of the major stock indexes out there this is as of of March 12th. The Dow was down 22% this is year to date. Since January 1st, the S&P was down about 5% year-to date. The NASDAQ which is very tech-heavy is down 9% on the year so even the MSCI which is the global index was down only about 1.5 so a little better. And the TSX was down a full percentage point since January 1st so again that's some sort of pretty big draw downs in the stock market. Again, your portfolios and our models are about flat on the year so there has not been a lot of ground lost and that is coming off the back of a double-digit returns for all of our models in 2024. That is the first thing I want to reiterate. The other thing is to say that stock market corrections like this are not uncommon so this S&P correction for example takes us back only to about the level of last September just before the election so that is not terrible. The other thing to consider is that on average a correction of at least 10% occurs once every 17 months. So historically speaking we see a 10% correction in markets every 17 months and it has been about 16 months since we saw our last correction. Again, that is right on time and me you know the recent example that we have been studying at our investment committee was the correction from last summer. Last July/August we saw a steep selloff in in Global stock markets and you know it was scary. At times it looks exactly like this one when you look at it, but it sorts of rebounded, and we just sort of regained strength the story changed the narrative in the market changed and we just sort of kept moving to the upside. Again  this is not something that we haven't  seen for and the other thing to mention  is just that a lot of the selling in the  market has really centered around tech  stocks some of the names out there  that were really quite  ridiculously overvalued so whether  you're talking about a Nvidia which  makes all the chips for AI or even a  Tesla is down like 50% from from its  high. Those are stocks in which we are not even interested. The numbers on those stocks do not make sense for our portfolios so we do not go there. Again, to reiterate your portfolio is not the market and you know I can highlight a couple of things that we've that I think sort of set us apart. First of all, we are very conservatively positioned as we have talked about. The balance model as an example is only 50% invested in stocks. The bond market has started to behave normally again so bonds historically were not correlated to stocks and generally acted as ballast in the account.  I.E stocks go down and the bonds rally up a little bit, so we have seen a return of that historical behavior which a welcome development is of course being invested in bonds, so they are positive on the year. Our fixed Income holdings are positive. Our alternative holdings again a big part of the portfolio we might have expected a little bit more out of them but again they are still positive on the year thus far which is a great development and even some of the stocks that we own. I mentioned that the MSCI which is the global index is only down about one and a half % versus some of the American indexes. Our international fund that we have in the portfolio is up about 3% on the year so again a little allocation there. It has been a great performing fund, but we have our international exposure to the upside. I also highlight a gold trade that we made just before the election process started in the US back early October. We had foreseen a lot of volatility of course around the event and put on a bit of a gold trade so we purchased the gold producers for your portfolio. Since then that position is up about 20% so there are things that are working really well in the current market and as  we've always said to you in our  portfolios there are no huge bats  so these are all little bats but it just  means that we're not overexposed in any  one area and performance generally  has been very good. I just really  wanted to highlight a few of those  things and wanted to make sure that you  as clients are focused on your  portfolios and and again to reiterate  one more time your portfolio is not the  market you're in relatively  good shape and we don't know what's  around the corner or what's going to come  out of the woodwork next but for now  that's just the message that we want  to convey to you today. I have also included a couple charts in the email body that just sort of speaks a little bit about some of the themes that we are talking about here. This again is always intended just to be a timely way to convey information to you. We are trying to make the rounds and get out and get on the phone with everybody here but of course if you have any questions about anything at all always pick up the phone and give us a call. That is your best and most efficient way to get hold of us. Anyway, with that I will leave it, and we will pick up again soon. Thank you. 

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Economic news

Economic Impact

To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Denis Girouard take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.

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Hello, everyone, welcome to Economic Impact. Today is March 11, 2025 and as usual, I am with our Chief Economist, Stéfane Marion. Hello, Stéfane. A lot of change since the last time.

Good morning, Denis. We're– I guess we're getting closer to the eye of the storm here with economic data that suggests that even the almighty U.S. economy is being impacted by the potential of the tariff war. And we saw that for the first time in two years there might be a service economy that shows contraction. And that Denis, is important because that's 2/3 of the US economy, so if you hit the service sector, which was not so much exposed to the so-called tariff war, but uncertainty has done its job. This bodes for a weaker U.S. economy in the months ahead.

And above that we have the bond market that are sending us a message now.

Things are in sync now, remember when we had a discussion a few months ago, the economic data was sometimes so so but now everybody seems to be thinking the same. And from US bond market perspective, the yield curve, which is the difference between a 10-year Treasury yield and a 3-month T-bill had is now flattening again. So historically Denis when they have a flatter or an inverted yield curve that would suggest weaker growth, not faster growth. So the bond market is clearly getting a little bit more worried.

Yeah. And at the same time, we're seeing a different signal on the equity market. If you're looking at Europe versus North America,

The equity market rarely inverts, actually the beginning of a flattening of the yield curve or potential inversion. And we've seen that things have changed quite significantly since we spoke last month in the sense that the equity markets are down, way down, particularly in the US. Notice too, that might be surprising, but, you know, some parts of the world which are threatened by US tariffs, emerging markets or Europe, are actually still up on a year to date basis, whereas the US is down significantly. So there seems to be a change in mindset from investors with the uncertainty related to what the global supply chain may look like in the months or years ahead.

And you want to put also in perspective, you know, the external sector, the export in the US versus what people think really.

Yeah. So there's been some denial in Washington by politicians, but also some economists who were claiming who cares if there's a tariff war, exports account for only 11% of the US economy. My answer to that is fine, that's on the economy. But what about the US financial markets, what about the S&P 500 where 41% of sales are realized overseas? So if you threaten the tariff war and you've had a strong U.S. dollar up until recently, then obviously you will threaten the performance of the US stock market. And that's part of the reason of, you know, what I showed you before of this lack, this underperformance of the US stock market versus other parts of the world.

And talking about that, not all sectors will be affected the same. And the one that will be, we know them very well.

Yeah. And we've all heard about the Magnificent 7 for the past two years generating most of the outperformance of the US stock market. So it's the IT sector, but the IT sector generates 56% of its sales from overseas economy. So imagine that, I'm threating you with a tariff war, there might be retaliation, what's going to happen to profits of the IT sector in particular? Well, it's not going to go well and that's fully reflected in we're seeing. So what we said before the US stock market down 9% from its recent peak, but the NASDAQ you know IT sector down almost 14% Denis. Note U.S. banks down more than 16%. Why is that? Well, if you decide that you're going to get, you know, a big change in the global supply chain, presumably that would entail also that maybe it will be yes, less exchanges in U.S. dollars and 92% of global trade happens in U.S. dollar. If people say I don't want U.S. dollars under these circumstances then U.S. banks are under pressure. So again, that does suggest weaker growth in the US in the months ahead.

And because everything is in sync right now, U.S. dollar is going down too.

Yes, so if you have these– if Europe is going up while the US is going down, clearly somebody is shunning the US dollar and U.S. dollar strength has vanished in the past four weeks and you're already down 4% to 5% year to date. So people are saying, you know, having second doubts about the rationale where the only place to be with Mr. Trump was to invest in the US. People said no, maybe I need to make sure that I–

Have bigger diversification.

More diversification, geographical diversification might make sense.

Yeah. If we come back in Canada, the external sector they did quite well in the last report.

Yeah, so we did well because US corporations decided with this tariff threat we will be importing like there's no tomorrow and that probably also impacted the US dollar. Whereas in Canada well it's the mirror image, if the US were import quite aggressively, we were exporting quite aggressively. So much so Denis hat we might have the trade contribution to our economic activity in the first quarter of this year, that will be the largest since we came out of Covid, so almost 5 percentage points. So think about this Denis, I might be seeing a negative GDP in the US in the first quarter and a positive one in Canada despite that we are the one threatened by a tariff war.

But that's going to be temporary.

I don't want to be complacent. You're absolutely right. People are trying to front run the impact of the tariffs. So that won't be carried into the second-half of this year. So I think that under these circumstances, despite the fact that GDP will be stronger than expected, I think that the Bank of Canada has no option but to cut rates at its next meeting, which will be tomorrow on Wednesday, March 12th.

And there's 2 words that we know very well now, "tariff" and "regulation". And when we talk about regulation in Canada, this is something that probably we should tackle right now.

Yeah. So we make a lot of fun about the president claiming that "tariff" is the most beautiful word in the dictionary. I would say, well, don't laugh too much because it seems that in Canada, "regulation" is the most beautiful word in our policymaker’s dictionary. They have their own dictionary sometimes Denis, unfortunately. So the point I'm trying to make here, Denis, is to say you know, did you know that regulations– we now have 320,000 regulatory requirements that are impacting our corporations and the manufacturing sector and loans is 105,000. It's up 40% over the past two decades. And what that does Denis, it limits our job growth our economic activity, but more importantly, our business investment would be 9% higher were it not for this increase in regulation. So, you know, we have a new Prime Minister in Ottawa, you know, leader of the Liberal Party. We'll see what happens. But you know, as you contemplate putting tariffs against the Americans retaliation, why don't we retaliate by getting rid of these regulation and kickstarting more economic activity in our country by helping a companies. And you know what that doesn't cost so much for governments to reduce regulation when you think about it. So maybe that's the way to go or an option for us to consider.

Yeah. And the timing is perfect right now to do that, you know.

You get an opportunity like an opportunity like this once in a generation. So let's seize that opportunity.

Stéfane, what do we do now? You told us to be very careful many months ago. Now. What's the next message?

You know, I admit Denis that we told clients to be careful maybe a little bit too early. But I think at this point in time, let's – before we go in and decide to buy the market more aggressively – let's be prudent, let's you know, have a balanced portfolio and maybe start thinking about potential geographical, you know, allocation to our diversification to our asset mix. So let's be prudent for the time being. We need to confirm what the new policies will be and the tariff war, if it continues, it won't be pretty in the second half of the year. There might be more downside to equity markets.

Well, on those not so good words. Thank you Stéfane. Thank you for being with us. Hopefully you're gonna be there next month, April, and until then, be safe, be careful, and hopefully things will go better. Thank you.

Property Perspective

Our National Bank specialists decode the latest trends in the real estate market, including interest rates, the resale market and forecasts for the coming months.

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Hello everyone and welcome to this November 28th edition of Property Perspective. Today I have the pleasure to be with Matthieu Arseneau, hello Matthieu. 

Hi Simon. 

And with Andrée Desrosiers. 

Hello Simon. 

Hello Andrée. Our topic of the day, what's best for my mortgage, a fixed or a variable rate. But before we enter that interesting discussion with Andrée, let's talk with Matthieu about recent economic news that influence the real estate market. So Matthieu, a number of events have occurred since we last spoke, all of which have an impact on the economic outlook, obviously. First, what are the implication of the Republican sweep in the US presidential election for economic growth and interest rates? 

Yes, this was a big event and there will be application for that for Canada over the next four years. Higher uncertainty, we saw that with the announcement of potential tariff on Canada. We'll see. But clearly, in my mind, the big event and this has implication for the housing market in Canada, particularly for interest rates. It's the fact that there could be much more fiscal stimulus South of the border given the promises of Trump during the campaign. As you can see on that chart, while the Congressional Budget Office was expecting roughly 6% of GDP deficit, which is already very high, it could be as high as 8% if all those promises are realized by Mr. Trump. So at the moment the Federal Reserve is trying to calm inflation in the US, calm the economy. There's government that could support growth over the next few years. So before the election, the Federal Reserve started to decline rates. They did already 75 basis points. But you can see that at the same time it didn't mean that longer term rates decline. In fact, it increased because of risk of tariffs and its implication for inflation because of stronger growth, though that's something we have to keep in mind. And the problem with that increase is given a global correlation in interest rates, when you have the largest economy in the world supporting the economy and having those rates it has an impact on rates in countries with economies not as strong as the US and has to cope with those increases. And that could be difficult for a couple of other economies in the world given the increase of those of those rates. So big implication and that has implications for Canada as well. 

Very interesting Matthieu, so the ability to lower the prime rate in the US now looks more limited. What about Canada?

In Canada, so we saw that in fact for investors expectation for the policy rate in the US, it was expected at 3%. Now it's much more closer to 4% by the end of next year. So clearly investors revised their optimism for rate cuts in the US. In Canada, the situation is clearly different in our view when you look at the labour market here, I'm showing the jobless wait for the prime age workers, the 25-54, it has continued to increase over the past few months. And that's diverging with the US and it's now its highest since 2017. And we don't see stabilization over the next few months given the hiring intention of corporations. So for us that's a sign that the economy has cooled significantly and this is reflected in inflation. When you look at services, core services excluding shelter in the US, it's running at 4.4% because they didn't have that weakness that we got in Canada, it's so it's running at 1.3%. So clearly inflation is under control here. So yes, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue to decline rates. Prior to recent announcements, we were expecting policy rate as low as 2% by the end of next year. But given the transfer that was also announced by the federal government, it could lead to upwardly revise a bit. We'll see if it will be implemented. But clearly as you can see on that chart, while Bank of Canada is declining rates, 10 year rate is increasing and is essentially in its last two years average at this point. So not that much relief for long term rates. So that's something to keep in mind. But for that reason, perhaps it's another reason for the Canada to try to push down those rates by having short term rates very low. So that's our expectation at this time, OK.

Matthieu, the government has announced recently an additional break on population growth for the next three years. What are the implications of this new announcement on the real estate market?

We talked about it very often over the past few months. Housing shortage is still very acute in Canada. We see that in the rental market with rent still increasing at a tepid pace. Same thing for first time home buyers. It's where affordability is still a problem. So I think it's the good decision to calm down population growth. In fact, with the recent announcement about the declining non permanent resident to 5% of population over a 2 year. Reducing permanent resident temporarily, that will lead for— when you look at the five year period, when we look in 2028, the pace for the next 5 years will be similar to what we had prior to the pandemic level, much more sustainable and much more in line with our capacity to welcome. So, I think it's a good decision at this point given housing shortage. And we have to keep in mind newcomers have problems to integrate the labour market in the current context. So let's fix that situation and get back to normal after this three-year period of slow growth and we will be able to get back to the model we had that was benefiting the Canadian economy prior to the pandemic. 

So finally good news. Thank you, Matthieu for your very interesting comments. Let's now discuss with Andrée, hello Andrée. In the context of the anticipated drop of the interest rate by the end of this year and obviously in 2025, should we go with a fixed rate or variable rate for our mortgage?

Very good questions Simon and indeed very relevant. The choice between a fixed rate and a variable rate for a mortgage depends on several factors, especially in the context of falling rates. Our risk tolerance, financial situation and short and mid economic outlook are key, you know, considerations to look at. We must first understand the bearish rate context, however, When the Bank of Canada lowers its prime rate, financial institutions typically adjust, you know, their mortgage rates in response to that downsize. Variable rates will generally follow primary fluctuations and become particularly advantageous in the short term. Fixed rates, although often higher than variable rates at the time of subscription, offer protection against potential future increases. We must however remember that they usually follow the interest rate on long term bonds and not the Bank of Canada prime rate. Therefore, a quarter point drop in the prime rate does not mean that fixed rate will fall by the same amount. 

OK. We must therefore understand this context carefully before making our decision. You're right, Andrée. Many people assume that when there's a drop in the prime rate, all rates fluctuate in the same way. However, as we have just seen, that isn't the case since different rates are influenced by different factors. With that in mind, Andrée, what are the advantages of one or the other? 

Yeah. If we look first, you know, at the variable rate, you should consider that rate if you believe that interest rates will continue to decline or stay low for an extended period of time. You can also choose the variable rate if you're comfortable with some level of risk and can handle or afford, you know, potential payment increases if rates rise. Also if you want to benefit from lower penalties, if you decide to pay off your mortgage early or switch lenders. Also, some variable rates loans offer the option to switch to a fixed rate if rates increase. On the other hand, you should consider, you know, a fixed rate if you prefer stability and want to avoid uncertainty, if you think rates might rise in the midterm and again, if your budget cannot accommodate sudden increases in monthly payments.

So once again, Andrée, the choice does not automatically go towards one or the other. Even if we are in the context of falling rates. As you mentioned, we must make sure to take other elements into account in our decision. You are very right Simon. And we must also not forget that some lenders offer mixed rate mortgages, you know, part fixed, part variables. So this approach allows you to balance the advantages of both options and reducing risk while still benefiting partially from falling rates. So in summary, you know in a falling rate environment, a variable rate may seem more advantageous in the short term, but it remains a bet on future rate trends. If you're comfortable with some uncertainty, a variable rate could maximize your savings. However, if peace of mind is your priority, a fixed rate is the safer choice. It all depends like usual on your financial profile and financial goals. To help you in your choice as usual, do not hesitate to consider or consult a mortgage specialist to assess your personal situation and provide you the right advice for that choice. 

Thank you Andrée for sharing your insights. As you suggested, having a discussion with a mortgage specialist will help make the right decision. There's no point about that. So thank you all for watching and join us again very soon for our next edition of Property Perspective.

5 • 4 • 3 Market Outlook

5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.

Hello everyone. Today, March 6, we're going to try to assess in just a few minutes a rather complex and constantly changing economic backdrop and what this could all mean for markets going forward. 

And to start with, I think it's important to understand that according to some indicators, we are actually facing the highest degree of uncertainty from an economic standpoint, economic policy standpoint for at least the past 25 years. So, we shouldn't be surprised to see equity markets’ volatility pick up against such an uncertain backdrop as markets try to assess what is the ultimate outcome and setting in terms of tariffs policy coming from south of the border. 

But as you can see here, the reaction is anything but exaggerated, so far, relatively muted, although we have seen indeed a pickup in volatility, maybe because markets have been conditioned not to overreact to uncertainty after a decade that has seen its fair share of historical events. But nonetheless, for the S&P 500 U.S. equity market, this marks a substantial shift in mood and sentiment compared to the optimism that prevailed following the last presidential election, the equity market now being slightly negative since the start of the year. 

And everybody's trying to assess where this may be headed going forward. But one thing is clear. If you take a big step back and look back at the last few weeks and months, that is the importance of diversification, which holds true when you think in terms of trading between countries, but definitely true when they think in terms of portfolio management.

And case in point, if you actually take a globally diversified equity portfolio in Canadian dollars, as you can see here, indeed there's slight gains still here today, large part due to substantial rebound in equity markets in Europe. But most importantly here you see that the path has been much narrower, much less volatile given these diversification effects. One very important being the impact of the Canadian dollar by depreciating helps returns when you bring them back home. So, diversification is somewhat working within equities and also working across asset classes with bonds having a rather good start to the year in the face of concerns over global growth, such that if you look at a very plain vanilla 60%-40% balanced portfolio, again, you see quite a narrow path in terms of volatility and very little damage so far in 2025.

Now, I want to be clear here, we've got to be cautious because there's definitely downside potential when you look ahead. And to give specific numbers here, the Bank of Canada actually tried to assess what could be the impact on our economy in the broad, a very extreme global trade war scenario. And the takeaway here is it's not a scenario that looks like anything like the [2008] global financial crisis or the pandemic but nonetheless could halt essentially growth in Canada in 2025 and ultimately create some problems for inflation as well.

But if there's one thing clear here though from the last few months, it's that the U.S. economy is anything but immune from a tariff shock, again being self-inflicted here by its own government. And specifically, we've actually seen a bit like the stock market consumer sentiment, which initially picked up post-election, now reversing course and coming down over the past two weeks, which definitely reflects concerns over inflation in the face of uncertainty about tariffs, consumer inflation expectations and that very survey usually don't move all that much, but have recently reached their highest level in in 20 years. So, this is something that we must keep a close eye on over the coming months because again, the U.S. economy may not be very much export-led, but it's definitely consumer-led. So that is very important.

Three takeaways for today. Again, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty, which for now, markets have been essentially holding their breath, waiting some clarity as to how this all going to be evolving and what will be the ultimate impact on the economy. Technically, there's definitely downside risk for growth, especially in a country like Canada, but there's also upside for inflation in the U.S. So, we'll have to see how this all plays out. And in terms of markets, this means that we are likely going to be facing substantial volatility as we have seen since the start of the year, but maybe even more so going forward as we see these effects in the economy. And as such, we think that the mindset that investors should have against such an uncertain backdrop is one focused on the diversification, which has worked again since the start of the year, much more than one, very much focused on any specific views one may have on a U.S. president that again here, is very unpredictable.

That's it for today. Thank you for listening and we will talk again in June.

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604-623-2844

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holykdorangroup@nbc.ca