Thank you for joining us today. I have to start with a quick disclaimer, and then we will get into our discussion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Information relating to investment approaches or individual investments should not be construed as advice or endorsement. Listeners should seek professional advice for their situation. This podcast is sponsored in part by McKenzie Investments. Now, on to the presentation.
Once again, thank you very much for joining us at SM Financial
Group. One of the things that we endeavor to do is provide information
that our clients are seeking. One of the items that we talk about
regularly in our meetings is estate planning, and I think that
understanding the role of an executor is key to that, whether you are
choosing an executor for your own estate or whether you are an
executor for someone else. So, I'm really pleased today to have Alyssa
Maita join us. She is a tax and estate planning specialist, and I'm
going to introduce her. Alyssa, could you tell us a bit about
yourself?
Hi Graham, thank you so much for having me
today. My name is Alyssa Maita. I'm the Director of Tax and Estate for
Mackenzie Investments for Western Canada, so I cover BC, Alberta, and
Saskatchewan. I've been with Mackenzie for just over a year now. Prior
to that, I was in a similar role at a national trust company, and
before that, I was in private practice for a number of years as an
estate planning and probate lawyer. I absolutely love talking about
estate planning, so thank you so much for having me here.
When I started my career, it was in estate litigation, so I've seen a number of reasons why estates end up in litigation. A big part of that is not choosing the appropriate executor, not choosing the person you would like to speak for you once you've passed away. I think we need to spend a lot more time talking about who an individual is appointing. I know when I switch to the solicitor side and I would have meetings with clients on who they would like to appoint as executor, it's often a quick discussion, right? We're asking who do you fully trust, who is financially savvy, but we don't think about the other things like who has the time to act. A lot of the tasks with simple estate administration involve a lot of patience and a lot of time. You might think you're choosing the appropriate person because they might have a business, for example, but that might not be the appropriate choice. I'm sure we'll do a deep dive into the tasks that are involved with the estate administration process and who you should be appointing, but it's definitely a discussion that needs to happen.
That sounds good, so let's dive right into it. What exactly is an executor? An executor is a person, or it could be multiple individuals, and in some cases, it's an entity like a trust company, that's appointed to carry out the terms of the will. It's important to keep in mind that an executor has no rights during the will maker's lifetime. We know about Powers of Attorney, which act when an individual is alive but typically incapable. The executor steps into play once the individual has passed away and fulfills any distribution in accordance with the terms of the will.
You often see the term executor and trustee. If an individual doesn't appoint a specific trustee for testamentary trusts set out in the will, then it's often the executor who will step up and take that role. It's important to keep in mind that an executor has no responsibility for assets that bypass the estate. Wherever you have a beneficiary designation on your registered plans or life insurance, those assets fall outside of the estate, so the executor wouldn't have any responsibility for those assets. In another situation where we have joint tenants with the right of survivorship, that asset is also going to bypass the estate and fall to the survivor, so the executor would have no responsibility for that either.
I often get asked how many executors should be appointed. Should I appoint one person, two people, or all three of my kids? It really depends on the situation. Remember, whenever you're appointing multiple executors, they're acting jointly and must act unanimously. There can be benefits to that, like checking and balance and having each other's support.
So, there are benefits, but there are also disadvantages. All decisions must be made together, so if they can't agree, we're essentially holding up the estate. I've seen a lot of clients who have three kids put in a majority rules provision, so if two of the three agree, then that's the decision that goes. That can work, but in a lot of cases, if two of the three siblings get along really well, they could potentially bully the third one. So, you must be careful and really consider who you're appointing. Often, it's best to just appoint one person but then have alternate names in case that person is unable or unwilling to act. I would say at least have two backups named, just in case the person is sick, at a point in their life where they're unable to take on that responsibility, or if they predecease you. If they simply don't want to act for whatever reason, it will be really important to have backups named.
Oftentimes, we also include trusts in the will, and a lot of those
trusts might be lifetime trusts. So, if we set up a fully
discretionary trust for an individual with a disability and that trust
is to last the duration of their life, that's a long responsibility
for a trustee to act. If we haven't named a specific trustee, we know
that responsibility will fall to the executor. So, you really want to
think about who you're appointing.
Some clients will
choose to appoint a lawyer or an accountant. The benefit of this is
that they are well-versed in your affairs, so it can be a good choice.
However, if that lawyer or accountant is the same age as you, it might
not be a good choice because they could predecease you or get sick.
You really want to be careful with that. If you appoint a younger
lawyer or younger accountant, and they have a really busy practice,
your estate might get put on the back burner. So, there are a lot of
options here, but you really want to think about who you're appointing.
A trust company can be a great option. Trust companies have
dedicated trust officers who are often lawyers, and this is their
whole task—estate administration. They can do a really good job of
administering the estate, and you can work with them. They require
clauses to be put into the will, but the client can say, "I want
my assets to stay with my adviser. Can we include language in the will
to provide for that?" And you're able to do that. You're just
working with a trust company and the lawyer to craft that language.
So, there are really good options out there; you just need to think
about what the best fit for your situation is.
I've seen
a lot of clients do a joint appointment where they'll appoint one
child jointly with the trust company. With that, the trust company is
going to take on all of the work, handling the difficult part of the
administration. However, because it's a joint appointment with a
child, that child has to agree to all decisions that are made. This
can be a really good working relationship.
Yeah, that's fantastic. If anyone has questions about the trust
services offered by National Trust, I'd be happy to make the
introduction.
Now, Alyssa, what are some of the key
duties of an executor or trustee?
Yeah, so an executor typically has 25 to 30 tasks in a simple estate administration, so there's a lot involved. One of the first tasks is to arrange the service and disposition of the deceased and obtain a death certificate. The executor is going to have to obtain multiple copies of the death certificate because they have to provide it to a number of parties, such as financial institutions, lawyers, and accountants. They will need to get multiple copies of those, and typically, your lawyer can notarize and make additional copies if necessary.
As I mentioned, one of the first tasks is the disposition of the body, and that's often the most difficult task. If you think about it, if you pass away and your children are appointed as executors, they now have to plan for your funeral, and they may have no idea what you would have wanted. It can be really hard on them, so I think it's important to spend time thinking about this and talking about it. You have a few options. You can let your executor know exactly what your wishes are through a verbal conversation.
A lot of clients don't feel comfortable going that route. You are able to include language in the will, but remember, a lawyer is not going to put in paragraphs of what you would have wanted. They can put in a simple line or two saying that you wish to be buried or cremated, or that you want a celebration of life. You can also do what's called a letter of wishes, where you go into detail about what your wishes are and include it with a copy of your will. Pre-planned funerals are becoming more and more popular, and it really takes the burden off of the executor because everything is already arranged. So, that's something you might want to think about.
A lot of clients will put in what their wishes are in that letter and make sure that their kids have a copy of it or know where they can find that information. So, it's something to think about. The next thing is, of course, locating the original will. You would think that this is going to be a simple task, but it's not always the case. You want to let your kids know who drafted your will and where you're storing the original. If they can't find the original will, we really can't do much. I'm sure we'll talk more about the probate process, but essentially, to get that authority from the court, you need to submit the original will. So, it's really important that your kids know where it's being located, whether it's at the lawyer's office, in a fireproof safe in your home, or in your safety deposit box. Make them aware that they should have all of your information, such as your personal information, date of birth, and the information of all the beneficiaries, including where they can be located. Updating addresses and keeping an inventory of that information is crucial. I think one of the best things an executor can do is establish a relationship with the financial advisor. That way, if anything were to happen to the client, the kids can go to the advisor and start the probate process. They can get a lot of information regarding the client's assets directly from the advisor, which is huge.
As I mentioned, we have an executor checklist. I would suggest having a meeting between the advisor and the executor to go through that checklist together. Make sure that your executor is willing and able to act and is aware of what's involved in the estate administration process.
If you've been divorced or separated, it's really important that your executor can retrieve a copy of that separation agreement and any income tax returns. If you're in ongoing litigation, such as a car accident, and there's an ongoing civil case, your executor will need to continue with that case after your passing to maximize your estate value. They will need access to that paperwork, so it's really important to keep your executor informed.
So, that's really important. I know a lot of clients will have those documents drawn up and then never make any mention of it to their executor or their kids. That's probably the worst thing you can do. We can't even apply for probate or do any estate administration without having that original will. So, it's really important that you're keeping your kids up to date on what you're doing. You don't need to show them the contents of the will, but you do need to let them know where it's being stored.
Another thing that I think is really important is keeping an asset inventory. With the probate process, you're going to have to include the estate value in the application. If executors or children have no idea what their parents owned, it can be really difficult. A lot of times, the lawyer is sitting and writing to every financial institution to determine if the deceased had assets with them, and this really just prolongs and delays the estate administration process. So, I think keeping an asset inventory is crucial. You don't have to put account numbers or balances, but basically saying these are the financial institutions where I'm holding assets. If you sell an asset, just update that inventory and make it a part of your plan every year to update it.
Digital assets are becoming more and more popular and have value. Keeping a record of digital assets like loyalty points, crypto, websites, blogs, and photos is important. Your executor needs to be able to access them. Crypto that you can't access is essentially crypto that you don't have, so it's really important to have recordkeeping of how those assets can be accessed.
Safeguarding assets is another big step that an executor has to take. This includes storing and insuring any valuable items, changing passwords, redirecting mail, closing any necessary accounts, and arranging for interim payments until they have full authority to act and liquidate those assets.
Right. So, storing and insuring any valuable items, including expensive artwork, changing any passwords, redirecting mail, and closing any necessary accounts are essential tasks. Additionally, arranging for interim payments until they have full authority to act and liquidate those assets is important.
I get a lot of questions about the timeline. How long does the executor have? You might have heard the term "executor's year," meaning in case law, an executor has basically a year to do what they need to do before the beneficiaries can start requesting updates. Many clients are under the impression that within a year, the estate will be fully administered, and assets distributed, but that's not always the case. In many jurisdictions where the courts are backed up, it can take a long time to even obtain probate. Typically, you're looking at 18 to 24 months for a simple estate administration.
Having said that, after a year, the beneficiaries can start asking for more information and see why things are held up or taking longer. You have an obligation and a fiduciary duty to provide them with that information. Setting expectations for the timeline is crucial. We have a number of aging clients, and we're always processing estates every year. Keeping in mind the realistic timeline is essential for everyone.
You want to set that timeline straight from the beginning, keeping them informed but realistic that it could take a while, and explaining the reasons why. Lastly, executors also need to ensure they're maintaining a record of every financial transaction that takes place within the estate. This is very important.
They must pay off all the deceased's debts and estate debts, advertise for creditors, allow them a certain amount of time to come forward, and file any estate tax returns. If there's a US component, ensure compliance with those regulations. They need to obtain a clearance certificate from the CRA, which confirms all debts and liabilities have been paid, allowing them to distribute the estate.
At that point, residuary beneficiaries in the estate are expected to receive a passing of accounts, showing every financial transaction that has taken place. They can review it and get independent legal advice.
If they're comfortable with it, they essentially sign off and then at that point, they'll sign a receipt and release and they'll get whatever they're entitled to from the estate. So, that's the high level what an executor's responsibilities are. Fantastic. Now, a term we hear a lot about when we're talking about estates is probate. Can you tell us exactly what it is and how that process works? Yeah, absolutely. So, you've heard me mention probate a few times, but it's essentially the process where the courts are going to review the will, ensure that it's valid, and then they're going to grant the executor with a certificate which allows the executor to be able to act. Right. So most financial institutions are going to require probate, and I'll tell you why. Let's say I've passed away and I've appointed my sister as the executor. She takes the will to the bank and says, here's my sister's will, here's her death certificate. I need all the money so that I can distribute it. The bank's going to say, well, we don't know if this will be valid and we don't know if you are who you say you are. So, that's why probate exists. It's so that the court can provide the executor with paperwork so that these financial institutions and lawyers are able to transfer property without an issue, without having to worry about the liability. The problem with the probate process is that the courts levy a fee, so in each province, this is going to look different. Here in Alberta, we are very lucky it's a flat fee of $525. When I was in private practice, I was in Ontario. The fees there are 1.5%, so a lot of times when we're doing planning, we're trying to minimize that fee. But here in Alberta, you know, we're lucky we don't have to worry about it. As far as that probate application goes, it's a lawyer's responsibility to do that so the executor isn't expected to take on that application process. The expectation is that they retain a lawyer, and the lawyer completes that application. Sometimes an executor will choose to take it on themselves to help save the estate some costs. I've seen a lot of issues with that, right. Any little mistake you make, the courts are often going to reject the application, so you're wasting a lot of time if you're not having a lawyer complete that paperwork.
The forms are not straightforward to fill out, so like I said, a minor mistake can cause that application to be sent back and now you're just delaying the estate administration. So, I would say, hire a lawyer and get that done as soon as possible. Fantastic. So once all the debts are paid, once the taxes are paid to CRA, what's the next step? Yeah, so once the debts are paid, all taxes have been paid, then you basically apply to CRA to get what's called the clearance certificate. Once you have that clearance certificate, you're ready to distribute the estate. Specific gifts and cash legacies are paid out first, and then you'll have this residue clause where it's typically divided in percentages, and you're able to give that money to the beneficiaries. Like I said, you will want the beneficiaries to sign a release form, and that release form says they've reviewed the estate accounting, they're okay with everything and now they're releasing the executor from any liability. Once they've signed that form, then you can go ahead and distribute those assets to the beneficiaries.
It is important though that the executor keeps a record of their expenses as well, right? So, mileage, if they've paid costs for photocopying, postage, things like that, you want to keep detailed records of all of that so that you're able to get reimbursed. That sounds good. Now, the executor and trustees do a lot of work. What is their compensation? Do they get paid? What are the rules around that? Yeah, for sure. So, executors are entitled to receive reimbursement for any appropriate expenses that they've had, and they use the estate funds to reimburse themselves. They are also entitled to compensation for the time and effort during their estate administration. A client can specify that compensation amount in their will. Some clients will choose to put a flat fee; some clients will choose to put a percentage in their will. As far as the executor's compensation, I would always advise that the flat fee is a little bit risky, right? Because you don't know what your estate size is going to be at the end of the day. If you put a really small flat fee, the executor might choose not to act; they might not think it's worth their time. If you put a high flat fee, and then your estate ends up shrinking just because you had a lot of costs during end-of-life care and things like that, you could be leaving them a really large amount. So, percentage is usually safer. I would say though that most wills are silent on the executor's compensation, and then it's sort of the provincial rules that kick in to determine how much the executor is able to take. That range is typically 2 to 5%. So, no executor should be getting more than 5% of the gross estate size. As far as between that 2 to 5%, how do we determine the appropriate percentage? It's really going to depend on a number of factors, right? So, what is the size of the estate? What was the complexity of the work involved? How much skill was required to administer the estate? How much time was spent administering the estate? I'll give you an example. If we had a simple situation where we have investments and a house that just had to be sold, it would be really hard to justify that 5%. But if you have, let's say, 30 beneficiaries and they're all over the world and there was business involved, you're probably going to look at being entitled to a higher percentage on that scale. So it's just going to depend.
Not all executors take compensation. So even if you provide for that in your will, you know, if you're appointing a child, they might say, "You know, I don't want to take the compensation. I'm happy to do it." The other thing is, it's taxable income to the executor, so if they take compensation, it's taxable income to them. So, it might not be worth it, and they might just choose not to take it. Right. Sounds good. So, what do you think people should consider when they're choosing their executor? Yeah, so I think we've mentioned the importance of choosing the right executor, but you're looking at several things, right? So, someone with ample time. A lot of times when I was in private practice, I would have a client say, "I have a son and he's running a really great business, he's very financially savvy, super successful," and then I would say, "Does he have a family?" And it turns out that, you know, they have three kids and he's really busy. That might not be the person to appoint, right? Although he's financially savvy and he might be well-versed in your financial affairs, if he doesn't have time to act, it's going to be difficult. So, you want to do that. Someone who's willing to act. A lot of times clients won't make mention to their kids that they've appointed them. That's the worst thing you can do. You want to check with your executor and make sure that they're going to be agreeable to act. Someone who's accessible, right? So typically, we say you should be appointing an executor who is residing in the same province as you just to make things easier. Someone who has patience, right? So oftentimes, you're sitting on the phone with CRA for two hours, and it can get really tiring and frustrating. So, you want to appoint someone who's going to be willing to do that and someone who's patient. Of course, someone who has integrity, right? They're acting on your behalf once you've passed away, so you want them to act the same way that you would. Someone who's objective. You might have beneficiaries that disagree, so you need to appoint someone who is not going to side with one of the beneficiaries. Someone who has good judgment, and then of course being financially savvy is important as well. And someone who's well-versed in your affairs is going to be important.
The one thing that I want you to keep in mind too is you want to be careful about appointing a non-resident executor. So, you don't want to be appointing someone in the US because the CRA could deem that your estate might be considered a US estate and there could be tax implications there. So, you should be appointing someone who's in Canada. If you have a child that's sort of in and out of the country, right? So maybe they're working in the US, but there's a good chance that they're going to come back, maybe you appoint them, but then ensure that you have backups appointed in case they are non-residents. So, for the most part, I would say spouses appoint each other first, and then after that, it really depends. If your kids are able and willing to act, and it's a good choice, then you would appoint your kids typically. But have a conversation with them. If they're not agreeable to do it, or they don't want to do it, look at other options like a trust company. Perfect. So, let's wrap it up here. So, we've covered the role of the executor, duties, responsibilities, how to choose the right person, and use us as a resource. We've got some great checklists. We're impartial, we're not the beneficiary, and we'd be happy to walk you through, just be a sounding board when you're going through this process. So, thanks for joining us. Alyssa, thank you so much for having me. And just a quick note here, if you're going to take anything out of this podcast, a couple of things: if you have your estate planning done, go back, review it, see who you've appointed as executor, decide if it's the right choice, and if you haven't had a conversation with the person you've appointed, I think it's a good time to ask them. And then the second thing is introducing your executor to [Graham]. I think that's a good option. They're able to get to know each other and then your executor knows that they have support in case anything happens to you. That's fantastic. So as our clients know, reviewing the estate and the will—or whether they have a will—is one of the items on our annual review agenda. So, it's not just sitting there for us to check; it's something that I think everyone should really put some serious thought into. And again, we're happy to help you out in any way we can. So once again, thank you very much, Alyssa, and if anyone has questions, feel free to reach out to us. Have a great day. Thank you.
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Thank you for joining us today. I'm going to talk to you about the investment management process that we use at SM Financial National Bank Financial. This is one of the services that we provide to our clients: Investment Management. We are also very involved in financial planning, estate planning, retirement, and education planning as well. But today, we're going to talk about our disciplined investment management process. So once a quarter, we get a deep dive and analysis done on the model portfolios that we use. As an outcome of that process, we look at two factors and there are two decisions that have to be made by the investment committee. The first one is the overall asset allocation: what is the proportion of the portfolio going into cash, bonds, and stocks, as well as Canadian, US, International, etc. And then the second part of that process is to decide who will be managing the different asset classes. So today, we've got Franklin Templeton and their ClearBridge group who manage the Canadian equity portion of the portfolios. They're going to be discussing the economy, the stock market, and their investment process specifically. So I'd like to introduce Dave Wall. He's going to be our guest today. And the first question I have is: where are the markets and the economy at, what brought us here, and then what is your outlook going forward?
Hi Graeme, pleasure to be here with you. And there we go, my screen is live for you. You got it? Good. Pleasure to be here. Again, I look forward to the next five or ten minutes. We're going to talk about Canadian equities and kind of the journey that we've been on. By the way, great initiative by you and your team, and really a great idea to keep your clients up to speed. I really like it and well done. If we're going to start from a position of talking about the markets, I think it's important to start from a macro perspective and really talk briefly about inflation, interest rates, and how that has affected markets in the last five years and investing overall. And then maybe drill down to Canada versus US markets. So since COVID, say the last four or five years, there's been a real intense market focus on equities. A large stimulus helped to drive the markets and the growth of the markets, which was followed by an unprecedented rise in interest rates to really slow the economy down and in effect direct the markets again. It has really been an environment of central banks controlling things. We think now there's really some normalcy returning to the markets and fine-tuning has begun. We're starting to get rate cuts when there is a decent economic environment and a good labor market as well, maybe more so in the US than Canada perhaps, but overall a pretty good labor market. A key takeaway to think of the market over the last few years is that a rising tide floats all boats. Well, we believe the tide has turned, no pun intended Graeme, although it kind of does fit my narrative, and it will be increasingly a stock picker's market and active managers will have an opportunity to perform. Still lots of uncertainties to consider in the market: tariffs in the US after the election, specifically wars in conflict, China, their underperforming economy and market, the effects of AI and how that's going to transcend the industry over the next few years, and more specifically in Canada for us, mortgage rate resets and really the challenge that that provides for the consumer. We think that the market is frothy and priced probably to perfection. There's still that fear of missing out attitude that is seeking high-flying growth names like the MAG 7 in the US. Rate cuts in Canada will continue and we seem to be heading probably to a little bit slower economy as of right now. But with that all in mind, we think that we're well positioned for that and we'll speak to that a little bit later on. Now maybe let's turn to the markets briefly. The first slide is an interesting slide that illustrates how Canadian markets have outperformed US markets over the last 25 years.
Yeah, so to interrupt, but this is really interesting how in more recent history the US has been outperforming Canada and I think that this is a good slide just to make the point about the opportunities that are here at the right time.
Absolutely, and most people do view the last 10 years especially as the US always outperforms Canada. That's not the case and even for many really investing experts, Graeme, they forget that Canada has great long-term performance if you take a different time period than the most recent bias. The first 10 years of the millennium, if you look from 2000 on, was a large outperformance for Canada. The US had a good run up in the 90s and then the tech bubble had the US market lag. And even if you look at this and you can see the chart, it was negative up till eight or nine years into the 2000s. Now it's done a great job to catch up as the markets do come and go, but the Canadian market outperformed in the third quarter of this year for the first time in seven quarters. And that's why it's important for investment professionals like you. They're so key in providing advice and a long-term perspective as the performance and leadership and performance does ebb and flow. There's another great debate that I'm sure that you're always looking at, Graeme, you and the team, and especially for investors, it's the debate over growth versus value. And this slide again shows 25 years of performance and the first 20 years really look very similar. Growth and value were kind of neck and neck as we went forward. Then we enter the pandemic in a large stimulus environment where growth has outperformed. The question to ask is how much of that was driven by fundamentals, and I know you guys think about this all the time, and how much of this was really just a huge stimulus and a large influx of cash to economies. Regardless of the answer there, we think there's still lots of froth in the market. Now I know that Graeme's done his due diligence on your behalf and has trusted us with a portion of your Canadian investments. Why has he done that and what can you expect going forward? I'm going to try to give some insight on that in the next couple of slides.
And I'll just interrupt for a quick minute here. The way I think a good analogy to look at part of the role of a portfolio manager, which is the role I'm licensed as a portfolio manager, I head our investment committee and make these decisions, it's almost like managing a hockey team where we need a defenseman, we need a goalie, we need some forwards, and we need some scorers. And every quarter when we review and analyze the portfolios, we're trying to decide if our goalie is doing their job or do they need to be replaced, are the defensemen doing their job or do they need to be replaced. So what we're looking at here is analyzing our Canadian equity player, which right now we're using Franklin Templeton and the ClearBridge team. I've used them for a number of years, very familiar with them, they've done a fantastic job. So this player is one that we keep our eyes on, but they're doing a great job. And I'm going to turn it back over and you can let us know about your process and then the results of that process.
Sure, yep, thanks Graeme. Yep, so this slide really is trying to illustrate our four focuses underlying our investments and how we build our portfolio. So I'll go quickly over this, there's some points in here, but the four things that I really want you to think about is we want to provide an absolute return for investors of high single to low double-digit returns again over the long run because there are ebbs and flows. We want to outperform the benchmark or the overall Canadian market by 2% annualized over the long period and we've managed to do that. It's actually been almost 2.5% annualized outperformance. We want to take less risk than the market and we want to protect on the downside and maintain that little bit more defensive stance overall in the market. So the goal for us is better risk-adjusted returns overall and this should help you understand how we'll perform in different markets. And I'll give you an example, when the market is high-flying, we're going to do our best to keep up with the Joneses. As an example, over one period the market returned around 26% up until now and we returned 24%. Proud of the number, but a little bit of underperformance. But in a year like 2022 when the market was down 5%, this Canadian strategy was up 3%. And that's exactly what we're trying to achieve because you realize that if you lose 50% of an investment in one year, you have to make up 100% the next year to break even. So we want to continue to protect on the downside and that's one of the characteristics that I look for in our portfolio managers, especially in the portfolios for our retired clients. I believe that we're paid and people are happier saving the downside than necessarily getting that last half a percent on the upside. So it's kind of long-term steadier growth.
Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, great, and that does fit our investment philosophy as well. So overall, just on this slide, and I'll illustrate just a few points for you guys, overall our positioning is defensive but not conservative. We are willing to take on risk when appropriate and find the best opportunities for you and Graeme's team. This slide shows our positioning and you can see we are overweight in the defensive sectors. So take utilities for example. If you rewind a year ago when interest rates were a little bit higher and possibly at their peak, utilities were underperforming and we were able to add with rates rolling over and the demand for electricity increasing, and AI as well with the demand there, we like our position. Energy is an example of us adding where opportunities arise. We like the Western Basin for oil with the addition of the Trans Mountain pipeline and on the gas side, LNG Canada coming on board. We think that's going to help names in western Canada and the Alberta Basin. It's a good backdrop for names like Pembina, Enbridge, etc. You can also see just as an aside, we've lessened our weight to consumer staples and only because we've been able to do that on their strength. Example names like Loblaw, etc. have performed well and we continue to trim those names to find other opportunities. Just a real quick example, financials continue to be our largest overweight although we've added and subtracted to individual banks where warranted. I think that from that perspective, just so you know, our cash, we try to be invested in cash all the time but we do use some cash that's available to make sure that we can add to positions when we see the opportunities. This is my favorite slide, Graeme, and you know we talk about why it's compelling for us to be part of your mandate and really why you think it's probably important for us to be part of your client's mandates. And this is really the slide. We've only had five managers on the fund in 40 plus years of existence and that means you can count on the continuation of the same process that has led to this kind of performance. The top slide, and I'll divide this slide into two different quick discussions, the top portion shows the outperformance of our mandate which is in blue over the S&P TSX which is in red over the 40 plus years that we've been in existence. A considerable outperformance. The bottom portion illustrates a couple of things. What this is showing is rolling five-year periods by month and really that equates to I think 440 iterations over the long period of time that we've been in existence. We've been able to outperform the benchmark in over 80% of those time frames and more importantly, we've only had one negative period and that is during the global financial crisis where the market has had 12 negative periods. So from my perspective, that's a very important concept for your clients to understand that over the long period of time, the risk-reward and the performance profile that you get has a smoother ride but in the long period of time, pretty good outperformance. I just want to say to you that if this isn't, and you guys use it as your primary fund, I think it shows predictable returns and protection on the downside. It's a really profitable ride and a smooth one, Graeme. And that's, I'll turn it back over to you if there's anything else you want to chat about.
Well, thank you very much, Dave. That's fantastic. And just to bring it to a close, the team at SM Financial Group are here to help. If you ever have any questions, reach out. I'm really happy with the team we've assembled. Our investment management process is very disciplined. We have that quarterly deep dive and review of the asset allocation of each of the teams we're using to manage the different positions in your portfolio. We've been very happy with Franklin Templeton and the ClearBridge group. It was the name changed from Bisset, so I often might slip in the wrong name once in a while. I've been using them for a while. And so yeah, like I said, not here to make people rich, I'm here to keep them rich or keep whatever level of savings they have there and grow it over time to help them achieve their goals. So please feel free to reach out to our team at any time. Dave, thank you very much and I hope everyone has a great day.
Thanks, Graeme. Thank you.
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). NBF and National Bank Investments Inc. (NBI) are wholly owned subsidiaries of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). NBI is a registered trademark of NBC, used under license by NBI.
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must
not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of
the information, opinions, and conclusions it contains may be made
without the express written pre-approval of NBF and NBI for each
instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or
underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive
remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors,
representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these
securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The information and the data supplied in the present video, including those supplied by third parties, are considered accurate at the time of their publishing, and were obtained from sources which we considered reliable. We reserve the right to modify them without advance notice. This information and data are supplied as informative content only. No representation or guarantee, explicit or implicit, is made as for the exactness, the quality and the complete character of this information and these data. The opinions expressed are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell shares mentioned herein and should not be considered as recommendations. The opinions are not intended as investment advice, nor are they provided to promote any particular investments and should in no way form the basis for your investment decisions.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF or NBI.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Martin Lefebvre, Vice-President Strategist and Head of Investment CIO Office at NBI.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of the information, opinions and conclusions it contains may be made without the express written pre-approval of NBF for each instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors, representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF. Rates and Dividends mentioned herein are current values and are not guaranteed, their values may change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF.
The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your wealth advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Andrew Buntain, Vice-President, Institutional Portfolio Manager at Franklin Bissett Investment Management.
This video has been approved by Franklin Templeton Inc. for publication on this microsite and SM Financial Group’s YouTube channel.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes.
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). NBF and National Bank Investments Inc. (NBI) are wholly owned subsidiaries of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA). NBI is a registered trademark of NBC, used under license by NBI.
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must
not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of
the information, opinions, and conclusions it contains may be made
without the express written pre-approval of NBF and NBI for each
instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or
underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive
remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors,
representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these
securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The information and the data supplied in the present video, including those supplied by third parties, are considered accurate at the time of their publishing, and were obtained from sources which we considered reliable. We reserve the right to modify them without advance notice. This information and data are supplied as informative content only. No representation or guarantee, explicit or implicit, is made as for the exactness, the quality and the complete character of this information and these data. The opinions expressed are not to be construed as solicitation or offer to buy or sell shares mentioned herein and should not be considered as recommendations. The opinions are not intended as investment advice, nor are they provided to promote any particular investments and should in no way form the basis for your investment decisions.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF or NBI.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Martin Lefebvre, Vice-President Strategist and Head of Investment CIO Office at NBI.
The opinions, endorsements, and recommendations expressed in my profile do not necessarily reflect those of National Bank Financial. This site and electronic communications will be monitored by National Bank Financial for compliance purposes."
National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).
This video may not be reproduced either wholly or in part. It must
not be distributed or published in any way whatsoever. No mention of
the information, opinions and conclusions it contains may be made
without the express written pre-approval of NBF for each
instance.
NBF may act as financial advisor, fiscal agent or
underwriter for certain companies mentioned herein and may receive
remuneration for its services. NBF and/or its officers, directors,
representatives, or associates may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein and may make purchases and/or sales of these
securities from time to time on the open market or otherwise.
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of NBF. Rates and Dividends mentioned herein are current values and are not guaranteed, their values may change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
We have prepared this video to the best of our judgment and professional experience to give you our thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed herein, which represent our informed opinions rather than research analyses, may not reflect the views of NBF.
The securities or sectors mentioned herein are not suitable for all types of investors. Please consult your wealth advisor to verify whether the securities or sectors suit your investor's profile as well as to obtain complete information, including the main risk factors, regarding those securities or sectors.
The information contained herein has been prepared by Graeme Sivertson, a Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at NBF and Andrew Buntain, Vice-President, Institutional Portfolio Manager at Franklin Bissett Investment Management.
This video has been approved by Franklin Templeton Inc. for publication on this microsite and SM Financial Group’s YouTube channel.
To keep you informed and stimulate your thinking, Stéfane Marion and Denis Girouard take a look at economic news and share their perspectives in our monthly informative videos.
Hello everyone, Welcome to Economic Impact. Today is December 10th, 2024 and as usual I am with our Chief Economist, Stefane Marion. Stefane, once again stock market is going up.
Hi, good morning, Denis. It's been a great wealth effect for most households. We know that most portfolios are composed of equities new all-time high on the MSI all country index. So, yeah, it's striking how well the stock market is doing globally.
And is it worldwide or it's only North America phenomenon?
Well, you might not suspect this thing, but if I was to tell you who's what's the best stock market perform where? Where's the country, where the stock markets performing the best so far in Q4?
I saw the slide.
Yeah. OK.
So Canada we're up almost 8% quarter to date, outperforming the rest of the world. Year to date, we have a 24% gain exceeded only by the US at 28%. I can bet you that not many people thought Canada would follow the US as well as it has in 2024.
Stefane, are we catching up in Canada versus the US because our price earning ratio are lower?
Yeah, we spoke to that a few quarters ago saying that it was abnormal to see this discount on Canada versus US on the stock market perspective. So you're absolutely right that there's a catch up phase here. Half of the gains on the S&P TSX this year were accounted by P/E expansion. Yet Denis, despite this catch up, we're still trading at historical discount to the US. So if I was to qualify the Canadian stock market right now, I would not call it overvalued. It's fairly valued, not overvalued for the US it's probably a different connotation.
OK. And now if we go back to economy, the exportation, I think we need to talk about that.
Well, people thought that stock market would be under pressure this quarter because of the potential threats of tariff coming from the US. I know the president-elect spoke to 25%. 25% would be a massive deal on Canada, Denis. Because we have $600 billion of exports going to the US, that's 20% of GDP. So I mean, you know, putting these slapping 25% tariffs on that would seriously fragilized any economy and probably the stock market.
And we can talk about crude oil because people, I don't think they know how much exportation we're doing to the State.
So the reason the market is not buying into the 25% tariff structure is because they know full well that the president-elect has promised the Americans that they would get affordable energy going forward. So if you impose a 25% tariff on Canada, which accounts for 62% of US imports of crude oil, we are now shipping 4 million barrels a day to the US right now. You would certainly ignite inflationary pressures in the US. So that's why the, you know, the components of the Canadian stock market that's performing so well in Q4, aside from the IT sector is the energy sector because the market is saying no, no, no, there's no way Washington could put 25% of tariff without fragilized its own economy.
OK, Stefane, but there's something doesn't add up here, why the Canadian dollar is so low compared to the US dollar despite that.
Well, for some people it's a conundrum because the models are broken because normally you have an historical relationship between the Canadian dollar and the price of oil. We also include, you know, interest rate spreads on that one. So what is striking this time is that the Canadian dollar is so cheap... well, you know, 1.40$ more than 1.40$ versus U.S. dollar and oil is trading at $70.00. We've never seen this combination in the past whenever the Canadian dollar traded at current levels, oil was trading at no more than $30.00. So obviously it's a revenue boon for the energy producers, but from a purchasing power it's quite frustrating. So a lot of people are saying why is the relationship broken between oil prices and the exchange rate?
OK, but how are you explaining that? Is it because of the employment?
Interest rate spread. So economic performance, the relative economic performance in Canada vs US. We're not doing very well right now. The unemployment rate at 6.8% last month versus US at 4.2%. So the markets have jumped on this and they are now saying that we can justify the divergence in monetary policy between the two countries.
OK, what's your call on the next Bank of Canada rate cut or not?
Well, the market is calling 90% odds that they'll be cutting rates 50 points. Yeah, 50 basis points. So we gotta get closer to 3% as quickly as possible. Denis, I want to bring your attention to the fact that this gap in the unemployment rate is the widest we've seen since 2001, so over 20 years. So yes, you can justify this. And so the Canadian dollar is trading on rate differential between Canada and US as opposed to oil prices.
Well, it's the end of the year and now we need to look at 2025. How does it look?
More uncertainty Denis. So uncertainty can bring positive surprises, but also can be challenging for markets or the economy. The reality, if we look at economic policy uncertainty in US right now, it has surged. The president-elect is not yet sitting in the White House and there's a whole bunch of policies that been rolled out there. We know that there might be a tariff war between China and the US, not just Canada and Mexico. So we're reinventing the global supply chain. It's uncertain what it means to inflation and expectations down the road. The president wants to avoid inflation expectations to rise. But this is pretty acute in terms of policy uncertainty right now. And this is a fairly high level, even if you compare to 2016 when he was first elected.
Well, we've never seen. Outside COVID, you have to go back to 2012 where it was the debt crisis in Eurozone, US was downgraded back then also, don't forget that... And there was also the beginning of a war in Syria, which is reigniting again. So we'll see what happened.
Syria is back again.
Yeah. So that can bring more challenges for markets. So again, this is not everything is so calm looking into 2025.
And we had two really spectacular year in terms of performance.
Yeah. So the message is don't be greedy when we've had two exceptional years of market returns, doesn't matter which asset classes, 2024 is just as good as 2023. It's exceptional to see back-to-back years like that. So again, looking into 2025, there are still uncertainties. So just be comfortable with your current asset mix and whether it respects your investment horizon. If not, then just give you know the calls that need to be made. But again, I can't promise you a third year of exceptional returns given the uncertainty that we see out there.
Well, on that, Stefane, thank you very much. Thank you for all of you to participate and to listen to our monthly Economic Impact. On behalf of the technical team of Economic Impact, on behalf of Stefane and myself, we wish you a happy holidays and hopefully we'll see you back in 2025.
Our National Bank specialists decode the latest trends in the real estate market, including interest rates, the resale market and forecasts for the coming months.
Hello everyone and welcome to this November 28th edition of Property Perspective. Today I have the pleasure to be with Matthieu Arseneau, hello Matthieu.
Hi Simon.
And with Andrée Desrosiers.
Hello Simon.
Hello Andrée. Our topic of the day, what's best for my mortgage, a fixed or a variable rate. But before we enter that interesting discussion with Andrée, let's talk with Matthieu about recent economic news that influence the real estate market. So Matthieu, a number of events have occurred since we last spoke, all of which have an impact on the economic outlook, obviously. First, what are the implication of the Republican sweep in the US presidential election for economic growth and interest rates?
Yes, this was a big event and there will be application for that for Canada over the next four years. Higher uncertainty, we saw that with the announcement of potential tariff on Canada. We'll see. But clearly, in my mind, the big event and this has implication for the housing market in Canada, particularly for interest rates. It's the fact that there could be much more fiscal stimulus South of the border given the promises of Trump during the campaign. As you can see on that chart, while the Congressional Budget Office was expecting roughly 6% of GDP deficit, which is already very high, it could be as high as 8% if all those promises are realized by Mr. Trump. So at the moment the Federal Reserve is trying to calm inflation in the US, calm the economy. There's government that could support growth over the next few years. So before the election, the Federal Reserve started to decline rates. They did already 75 basis points. But you can see that at the same time it didn't mean that longer term rates decline. In fact, it increased because of risk of tariffs and its implication for inflation because of stronger growth, though that's something we have to keep in mind. And the problem with that increase is given a global correlation in interest rates, when you have the largest economy in the world supporting the economy and having those rates it has an impact on rates in countries with economies not as strong as the US and has to cope with those increases. And that could be difficult for a couple of other economies in the world given the increase of those of those rates. So big implication and that has implications for Canada as well.
Very interesting Matthieu, so the ability to lower the prime rate in the US now looks more limited. What about Canada?
In Canada, so we saw that in fact for investors expectation for the policy rate in the US, it was expected at 3%. Now it's much more closer to 4% by the end of next year. So clearly investors revised their optimism for rate cuts in the US. In Canada, the situation is clearly different in our view when you look at the labour market here, I'm showing the jobless wait for the prime age workers, the 25-54, it has continued to increase over the past few months. And that's diverging with the US and it's now its highest since 2017. And we don't see stabilization over the next few months given the hiring intention of corporations. So for us that's a sign that the economy has cooled significantly and this is reflected in inflation. When you look at services, core services excluding shelter in the US, it's running at 4.4% because they didn't have that weakness that we got in Canada, it's so it's running at 1.3%. So clearly inflation is under control here. So yes, we expect the Bank of Canada to continue to decline rates. Prior to recent announcements, we were expecting policy rate as low as 2% by the end of next year. But given the transfer that was also announced by the federal government, it could lead to upwardly revise a bit. We'll see if it will be implemented. But clearly as you can see on that chart, while Bank of Canada is declining rates, 10 year rate is increasing and is essentially in its last two years average at this point. So not that much relief for long term rates. So that's something to keep in mind. But for that reason, perhaps it's another reason for the Canada to try to push down those rates by having short term rates very low. So that's our expectation at this time, OK.
Matthieu, the government has announced recently an additional break on population growth for the next three years. What are the implications of this new announcement on the real estate market?
We talked about it very often over the past few months. Housing shortage is still very acute in Canada. We see that in the rental market with rent still increasing at a tepid pace. Same thing for first time home buyers. It's where affordability is still a problem. So I think it's the good decision to calm down population growth. In fact, with the recent announcement about the declining non permanent resident to 5% of population over a 2 year. Reducing permanent resident temporarily, that will lead for— when you look at the five year period, when we look in 2028, the pace for the next 5 years will be similar to what we had prior to the pandemic level, much more sustainable and much more in line with our capacity to welcome. So, I think it's a good decision at this point given housing shortage. And we have to keep in mind newcomers have problems to integrate the labour market in the current context. So let's fix that situation and get back to normal after this three-year period of slow growth and we will be able to get back to the model we had that was benefiting the Canadian economy prior to the pandemic.
So finally good news. Thank you, Matthieu for your very interesting comments. Let's now discuss with Andrée, hello Andrée. In the context of the anticipated drop of the interest rate by the end of this year and obviously in 2025, should we go with a fixed rate or variable rate for our mortgage?
Very good questions Simon and indeed very relevant. The choice between a fixed rate and a variable rate for a mortgage depends on several factors, especially in the context of falling rates. Our risk tolerance, financial situation and short and mid economic outlook are key, you know, considerations to look at. We must first understand the bearish rate context, however, When the Bank of Canada lowers its prime rate, financial institutions typically adjust, you know, their mortgage rates in response to that downsize. Variable rates will generally follow primary fluctuations and become particularly advantageous in the short term. Fixed rates, although often higher than variable rates at the time of subscription, offer protection against potential future increases. We must however remember that they usually follow the interest rate on long term bonds and not the Bank of Canada prime rate. Therefore, a quarter point drop in the prime rate does not mean that fixed rate will fall by the same amount.
OK. We must therefore understand this context carefully before making our decision. You're right, Andrée. Many people assume that when there's a drop in the prime rate, all rates fluctuate in the same way. However, as we have just seen, that isn't the case since different rates are influenced by different factors. With that in mind, Andrée, what are the advantages of one or the other?
Yeah. If we look first, you know, at the variable rate, you should consider that rate if you believe that interest rates will continue to decline or stay low for an extended period of time. You can also choose the variable rate if you're comfortable with some level of risk and can handle or afford, you know, potential payment increases if rates rise. Also if you want to benefit from lower penalties, if you decide to pay off your mortgage early or switch lenders. Also, some variable rates loans offer the option to switch to a fixed rate if rates increase. On the other hand, you should consider, you know, a fixed rate if you prefer stability and want to avoid uncertainty, if you think rates might rise in the midterm and again, if your budget cannot accommodate sudden increases in monthly payments.
So once again, Andrée, the choice does not automatically go towards one or the other. Even if we are in the context of falling rates. As you mentioned, we must make sure to take other elements into account in our decision. You are very right Simon. And we must also not forget that some lenders offer mixed rate mortgages, you know, part fixed, part variables. So this approach allows you to balance the advantages of both options and reducing risk while still benefiting partially from falling rates. So in summary, you know in a falling rate environment, a variable rate may seem more advantageous in the short term, but it remains a bet on future rate trends. If you're comfortable with some uncertainty, a variable rate could maximize your savings. However, if peace of mind is your priority, a fixed rate is the safer choice. It all depends like usual on your financial profile and financial goals. To help you in your choice as usual, do not hesitate to consider or consult a mortgage specialist to assess your personal situation and provide you the right advice for that choice.
Thank you Andrée for sharing your insights. As you suggested, having a discussion with a mortgage specialist will help make the right decision. There's no point about that. So thank you all for watching and join us again very soon for our next edition of Property Perspective.
5 minutes, 4 graphs, 3 key takeaways! Discover a fresh focused quarterly review of markets, the economy and investments with expert Louis Lajoie from our CIO Office.
Hello everyone. Today, December 4, we're going to take 5 minutes to look back on the year that's just about the end and look forward to the year that's right around the corner.
So, if we start by looking in the rear-view mirror, as you can see, 2024 turned out to be quite a spectacular year for investors. Returns of about 30% for global equities in Canadian dollars. There were some bouts of volatility from time to time, but ultimately with inflation moving down broadly and the labour market in the U.S. remaining relatively strong, the uptrend was sustained on the equity market front. The flip side of this is that without any substantial slowdown in growth, bonds gains were much more modest, but nonetheless in line with running yields. And if you combine these two key asset classes as we often see in a balanced portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds, again, as you can see, a spectacular year for investors.
And just to put things into perspective, let's look at how that specific balanced typical portfolio has performed historically on a year-to-year basis. And there are two things, two takeaways from this chart. The first one being just how much the chances of success are skewed towards investors, in favour of investors essentially 8 years out of 10. That portfolio has been positive since the 1990s by an average of about 8%. So, the point here is that whenever we may think at any point in time, just keep in mind that these are the odds that we're facing as investors. The second point is to show how the last few years have been rather extreme in many ways, and specifically in 2022, when that inflation shock spared no asset classes virtually. But since then, we've had quite a positive comeback in 2023, but even more so this year. And the fact that we've been so much in extremes in recent years is definitely a reflection of the reality that the economic landscape has been anything but normal in recent years as we've moved away from the pandemic.
And the reality is that even in as we approach 2025, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty and even fragility in this economic backdrop, all reliant on how the U.S. labour market will evolve. And for now, what we see is that businesses are very cautious, with hiring rates well below historical averages, and consequently, workers are also very much prudent, much less willing to quit their job on their own, the quit rate is at its slowest point in essentially 8 years. But the positive thing here is that despite all of this, layoffs remain very low. And the labour market picture that you see on the screen here, that was literally the best-case scenario in the eyes of the Fed and by extension, in the eyes of the markets. And that's what we got thus far. But let's be clear, these trends, specifically these two, need to stabilize in 2025 because otherwise the logical next step would be to ultimately see that layoff rate pick up.
So, we'll have to remain cautious, but there's ground for optimism. There are some promising signs that are starting to show up on our screen. Specifically, we like to monitor manufacturing activity, which has been relatively weak over the past two years. But when you take into account a series of factors and most importantly, the fact that global central banks have been cutting rates, most of them have been cutting rates since 2024, that suggests that we may get a rebound next year. And if that happens, that would be very much welcome news for markets.
All right. So, 3 takeaways for today. As I alluded to, it's essentially the best-case scenario that came to fruition in 2024 and markets have responded accordingly. But when we look at 2025, we technically see less and fewer cyclical clouds, but we're faced with much more political fog with the arrival of U.S. administration that you know, as well as I do, is fundamentally unpredictable. And there's a lot of things that will likely happen on the fiscal policy front, the trade policy front, foreign policy front. There will definitely be surprises on these fronts next year. And as such, as investors, we must expect sustained volatility next year and ultimately, perhaps gains that are much closer to historical averages and perhaps less extreme than what we've seen in recent years.
If you'd like more details on our outlook for next year, make sure to check out a report that came out in early December. And until then, I wish you all happy holidays and we will talk again in March 2025.
The experts at National Bank Financial give a detailed analysis on how the stock markets and fixed income markets have performed every week.
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